GROWTH DEVELOPMENT CHILD
COGNITION AND EMOTIONS
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Question
[CLICK ON ANY CHOICE TO KNOW THE RIGHT ANSWER]
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Draw general conclusions based ona few isolated cases
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Overestimate the odds of a chanceevent if that event hasn’t occurred recently
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Underestimate the odds of achance event if that event hasn’t occurred recently
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Believe that the odds of two uncertain events happening together aregreater than the odds of either event happening alone
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Detailed explanation-1: -The ‘Conjunction Fallacy’ is a fallacy or error in decision making where people judge that a conjunction of two possible events is more likely than one or both of the conjuncts.
Detailed explanation-2: -Tversky and Kahneman (1983)showed that when subjects are asked to rate the likelihood of several alternatives, including single and joint events, they often make a “conjunction fallacy.” That is, they rate the conjunction of two events as being more likely than one of the constituent events.
Detailed explanation-3: -The conjunction fallacy is the human tendency to prefer a plausible story to a probable one. In other words, when a story makes sense to you, you’re likely to believe it even if the true probability of it occurring is low.
Detailed explanation-4: -He and his son rode the roller coaster. Is Cliff more likely a man or a man who is a thrill seeker and adrenaline junkie? Many people would pick the latter choice because they assume that, since Cliff rode on a roller coaster, he must be a thrill seeker and adrenaline junkie.