BACHELOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

BUSINESS ANALYTICS

Question [CLICK ON ANY CHOICE TO KNOW THE RIGHT ANSWER]
An initial estimate of the probabilities of events is a ____ probability.
A
conditional
B
posterior
C
prior
D
empirical
Explanation: 

Detailed explanation-1: -Prior probability, in Bayesian statistics, is the probability of an event before new data is collected. This is the best rational assessment of the probability of an outcome based on the current knowledge before an experiment is performed. Prior probability can be compared with posterior probability.

Detailed explanation-2: -The probability of an event occurring is intuitively understood to be the likelihood or chance of it occurring. In the very simplest cases, the probability of a particular event A occurring from an experiment is obtained from the number of ways that A can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

Detailed explanation-3: -Prior probability shows the likelihood of an outcome in a given dataset. For example, in the mortgage case, P(Y) is the default rate on a home mortgage, which is 2%. P(Y|X) is called the conditional probability, which provides the probability of an outcome given the evidence, that is, when the value of X is known.

Detailed explanation-4: -A posterior probability is the probability of assigning observations to groups given the data. A prior probability is the probability that an observation will fall into a group before you collect the data.

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