AP PSYCHOLOGY

Detailed explanation-1: -Hindsight bias is a psychological phenomenon in which one becomes convinced they accurately predicted an event before it occurred. It causes overconfidence in one’s ability to predict other future events and may lead to unnecessary risks. Hindsight bias can negatively affect decision-making.

Detailed explanation-2: -According to new research, hindsight bias–the way our impression of how we acted or would have acted changes when we learn the outcome of an event–is actually a by-product of a cognitive mechanism that allows us to unclutter our minds by discarding inaccurate information and embracing that which is correct.

Detailed explanation-3: -The term “hindsight bias” refers to the tendency people have to view events as more predictable than they really are. Before an event takes place, while you might be able to offer a guess as to the outcome, there is really no way to actually know what’s going to happen.

Detailed explanation-4: -This model emphasizes unique interconnections between inputs and consequences with regard to three levels of hindsight bias: memory distortion (“I said it would happen”), inevitability (“It had to happen”), and foreseeability (“I knew it would happen”).

Detailed explanation-5: -Here are some examples of the hindsight bias phenomenon. On the evening of an important World Series game, your friend predicts that the Red Sox are going to win by a large margin. In fact, the Red Sox do end up winning the game, causing your friend to boast “I predicted it!"